Bagels with Brendan Issue #13
Good morning!
Apologies for the lack of an issue last week—my season is kicking back into full swing, and with that comes a ton of homework. Until summer arrives, issues will be published bi-weekly.
Today, we’re diving into Madrid: updated power rankings (with explanations!) and an analysis of the women’s final between Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff.
Note: I thought the men’s tournament in Madrid was pretty uninteresting, so we won’t be covering it this time. Don’t worry—there will be plenty of focus on the men in the next issue once the Italian Open is underway.
Sabalenka Equals Kvitova with Her 3rd Madrid Title
Aryna Sabalenka defeated Coco Gauff 6–3, 7–6(3) to claim her third Madrid title, tying Petra Kvitova for the most women’s titles in Madrid history.
Here’s what Sabalenka has accomplished so far this season:
6 finals, 3 titles (Brisbane WTA 500, Miami & Madrid WTA 1000s)
31–5 record on the season
6–0 against top 10 players (12–0 in sets)
Tournament Path
Going into the final, oddsmakers gave Sabalenka a 53% chance of winning. She had the easier draw—Elina Svitolina, ranked 17th, was the highest-ranked opponent she faced. After dropping the first set in the 3rd round against former doubles partner Elise Mertens, Sabalenka didn’t lose another set. Her play throughout was spotty—flashes of brilliance mixed with patches of unforced errors.
Gauff’s path was much different.
She dropped her opening set 0–6 to Dayana Yastremska but fought back to win and didn’t lose another set until the final. She beat compatriot Ann Li, then took revenge on Belinda Bencic 6–4, 6–2. In the quarterfinals, she saved two set points to beat Mirra Andreeva 7–5, 6–1. Then came the shock of the tournament: she dominated world #2 Iga Swiatek 6–1, 6–1 in one of the wildest matches of the season.
Gauff vs. Swiatek: Match Highlights
First player to not give Swiatek a single break point on clay
Won 11 consecutive games
18 winners to 8 unforced errors, including 7 aces
Lost only 6 points on serve the entire match
Swiatek hit just 7 winners and committed 28 unforced errors (21 from her forehand)
Gauff was playing like she did during the United Cup—heavy forehand, rock-solid backhand, aggressive with margin, and elite serving. Heading into the final, she was my pick to win.
The Final: Sabalenka vs. Gauff
Sabalenka came out firing, hitting clean winners and earning break points in Gauff’s first service game. Gauff held, but then Sabalenka rattled off 17 straight points. Gauff’s serve crumbled under pressure, and despite getting one break back, Sabalenka closed the set 6–3.
The second set was tighter. Gauff broke early and held her lead until 5–4, serving to force a third set. Then came the turning point: two double faults and a forehand miss gave Sabalenka three break points. Gauff saved all three, but not the fifth—Sabalenka broke back and held for 6–5.
She had a championship point at 40–30 on Gauff’s serve but shanked the return. In the tiebreaker, Sabalenka jumped to 3–0, then gave up three straight points. At 3–3, Gauff missed a forehand, and Sabalenka followed up with two big serves. Gauff double faulted on match point, handing Sabalenka the title.
Final Match Stats
Gauff
Unforced Errors: 24 (15%)
Forehand Errors: 16 (10%)
Forehand Winners: 13 (8.1%)
Backhand Errors: 12 (7.5%)
Double Faults: 8 (5%)
Serve Winners: 7 (4.4%)
Forced Errors: 7 (4.4%)
Non-error Forehands: 4 (2.5%)
Backhand Winners: 2 (1.25%)
Aces: 2 (1.25%)
Sabalenka
Unforced Errors: 21 (20.6%)
Forehand Errors: 10 (9.8%)
Backhand Errors: 8 (7.8%)
Serve Winners: 8 (7.8%)
Backhand Winners: 6 (5.9%)
Forehand Winners: 4 (3.9%)
Double Faults: 2 (2%)
Aces: 2 (2%)
Overheads: 2 (2%)
Forced Errors: 3 (2.9%)
Takeaway
The stats say it all: Sabalenka was too powerful, and Gauff’s serve collapsed when it mattered most.
Current Rankings
Sabalenka
Swiatek
Gauff
Fun Fact: The gap in ranking points between Sabalenka (#1) and Swiatek (#2) is bigger than the gap between Swiatek and Anisimova (#17).
Power Rankings: French Open Contenders
(Not technically a ranking, but here are the five women I think can actually win Roland Garros.)
Sabalenka – Clearly the best right now. Not up for debate.
Gauff – She earned this with her Madrid run and big wins.
Andreeva – Clay has been tricky, but if she finds her flow like at Indian Wells, she’s dangerous.
Swiatek – Might sound crazy to have her fourth, but Madrid changed my mind.
Ostapenko – Bit of a wildcard, but momentum is everything. Plus, she’s a former champ and just beat both Iga and Sabalenka in Stuttgart.
Bonus
📊 Scorekeeping Doc (Point-by-Point from the Final)
Click here to view