We all know what tomorrow is-
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz.
1 vs 2.
Fire vs Ice.
A rematch of the final in Paris just over a month ago, this is one of the most highly anticpated matches in sports right now. After their last match lasted 5 and a half hours, its certainly deserving of all the hype. But who will win? Alcaraz has won Wimbledon the last 2 years, and has beaten Sinner the last 5 times they have played. But Sinner took the win on their one meeting in London previously, in 2022.
Let’s go over it- stat by stat.
Serve: Advantage Sinner
I think that this image tells the whole story. Besides aces per match, Sinner leads Alcaraz in every serving stat. The big difference is second serve points won. Sinner has won 64.4 % of points behind his second serve, and Alcaraz is a whole 10 percentage points behind him.
The aces and double faults for Alcaraz convey how risky he has been on his serve, and how it has not been paying off for him. Furthermore, Sinner has won 95.3 % of his service games this tournament, only being broken four times. Alcaraz has won 90.3% of his service games this tournament, being broken eleven times.
Return: Advantage Sinner
Over the 6 matches played, Sinner has won 32% of return games. Alcaraz has only won 27%. Furthermore, Sinner is more stable on his return. He has converted break points at a higher rate than Alcaraz this fortnight.
Forehand: Advantage Alcaraz
This is self explanatory. While Jannik has an excellent forehand, the Alcaraz forehand is just better in every aspect, and one of the biggest weapons in men’s tennis.
Backhand: Advantage Sinner
One of the most consistent strokes in men’s tennis, and undoubtedly the best backhand on tour, this should come as no surprise.
Net Game: Advantage Alcaraz
This should also be self explanatory. Alcaraz has incredible reflexes, and easily takes this category.
Agility: Advantage Alcaraz
This one is closer than you might think- but I have to give it to Alcaraz, he is the fastest by far on tour.
In Attack: Tie
I think both players have equally good offensive games, and I would be fine giving this to either of them. That being said, I don’t want to give this to either of them, as it is so close.
Neutral: Advantage Sinner
The Italian has the strongest groundstrokes on tour, so it should come as no surprise that he has a clear advantage in neutral rallies.
Defense: Advantage Alcaraz
Again, Alcaraz is so incredibly fast. So he has an obvious advantage here.
Consistency: Advantage Sinner
The most consistent player on tour against perhaps one of the most inconsistent players on tour…. yeah this one is a no brainer.
Mentality: Advantage Alcaraz
This is going to be a big one. The deciding factor in their previous matchup in the French Open Final, this will play a giant role in their match today.
Stamina: Advantage Sinner
Say whatever you want, but Alcaraz has spent almost 5 hours more on court than Sinner has this tournament. They both have incredible stamina, and that was seen in their French Open match. But the fatigue must start to show for Alcaraz at some point.
Overall: 6-5 Sinner
My Prediction: Sinner in 5 sets, 6-3 6-7 7-6 4-6 7-6
What Sinner needs to do to win:
Don’t choke!!!
Erase all previous matchups from your mind
Play well
What Alcaraz needs to do to win:
Conserve your energy
Give no free points
Come up to net as much as possible
Remember Paris, use it as fuel
Be Consistent
So as you can see, there are more things Alcaraz needs to do than Sinner. I don’t care about any head to heads or who’s won Wimbledon- I think you can throw that out.
Sinner in 5.
Make sure to comment and grade my prediction 1/10 after the match.
And of course, subscribe. Also, get comfortable on your couch- its going to be a while.
excellent analysis Brendan!!!!
Like the analysis and the prediction. It’s going to be close.