Bagels with Brendan Issue #18
Fritz vs Alcaraz: Men’s Semifinal #1
Today, I am going to be diving into the Men’s semifinals, and giving analysis on each category of their games. First, let’s go with the two-time defending champ vs. the American: Fritz vs Alcaraz.
Serve – Advantage Fritz
Fritz’s serve has been stellar so far this tournament. Hitting an average of about 20 aces per match with a first serve percentage in the mid 60s, the American’s serve has undoubtedly been his main weapon in England so far. When you compare his serve to the serve of Carlos Alcaraz, you see that Fritz has more aces, fewer double faults, a higher first serve percentage, and more points won behind the first serve.
Return – Advantage Fritz
I think this is pretty self-explanatory – Fritz’s return has also been a major strength in his game. Especially against Perricard and Diallo, his return of serve is what won him those matches. As for Alcaraz? Nothing has impressed me yet with his return. It’s been good, but not as crucial for him as it has been for Fritz. An argument could be made about the second serve return of Alcaraz being better, but when about two-thirds of the points are played on the first serve, Fritz’s return is more valuable.
Forehand – Advantage Alcaraz
Yeah – I don’t think I need to explain this one.
Backhand – Even playing ground
Neither of these men have a great backhand, but neither of them have a bad backhand either. Pretty dead even here.
Net Game – Advantage Alcaraz
I have been saying this for so long – Alcaraz needs to be up at net way more. He has too good reflexes and volleys to not be at net more. He needs to utilize this. He has, in my opinion, one of the best net games on tour.
Agility – Advantage Alcaraz
The best mover on tour vs. one of the worst. This is a big advantage in this match.
Stamina – Advantage Alcaraz
Again – Alcaraz has incredible stamina. Fritz’s stamina isn’t bad, but it is nowhere near that of Alcaraz.
In Attack – Advantage Alcaraz
I think offensively, Alcaraz has bigger weapons and more firepower than Taylor Fritz. It’s close though.
Neutral – Advantage Fritz
This is where Fritz can really do his damage – play aggressive with lots of margin. Make Alcaraz hit that extra ball, draw that extra error. He can get really antsy at times – and Fritz should use that to his advantage.
Defense – Advantage Alcaraz
Again, Alcaraz is the best mover on tour. He gets to basically everything, and he always makes you play that extra ball – the most annoying player to play against. (Trust me, I know).
Consistency – Advantage Fritz
This shouldn’t really be advantage Fritz – it should be disadvantage Alcaraz. It’s not that Fritz is super consistent – it’s just that Alcaraz is super inconsistent.
Mentality – Advantage Alcaraz
I mean come on – the guy just mounted one of the greatest comebacks in the last 20 years or so. He has a ludicrous 5-set record (only loss coming to Berrettini at the 2022 AO). Fritz has proven to be a warrior this tournament (evidenced by his first-round thriller against Mpetshi Perricard, in which he came back from 2 sets to 0 and down 5-1 in a must-win 4th set tiebreak). But that doesn’t matter – Alcaraz is still much stronger mentally.
Overall: 7–4 Alcaraz
Keys for Fritz to win:
Stay calm
Stay consistent
Don’t go for too much on the return
Attack in neutral rallies – but don’t go for broke
High 1st serve percentage
Keys for Alcaraz to win:
Play well
Make him move
Keep the errors to a minimum
My Prediction: Alcaraz to win in 3 or 4 sets
I think that Fritz doesn’t have the weapons to beat a player like Alcaraz in a best-of-5 set match. Not if Alcaraz plays well. What needs to happen for Fritz to win is he needs to play some of his best tennis, being aggressive with margin and making Alcaraz uncomfortable, giving him nothing to work with. If Alcaraz is playing well, that won’t be enough to beat him. It might be enough to take off a set or two, but not to win. I honestly wouldn’t be shellshocked if Fritz pulls through with the upset — Alcaraz is super inconsistent, plus it’s been a bad year for three-peats. But if I had to put my life on the line, I would bet Alcaraz 99 times out of 100.