Bagels with Brendan Issue #16
Good afternoon, hope everyone is doing well.
I am going to have an issue for you guys on Friday, and it will be a very long one. I will be analyzing the Wimbledon Draw. That is why this issue is very short—I will be diving into 6 players: the 4 women and the 2 men who I think have a decent chance of winning Wimbledon. A very brief issue, let’s get into it.
Coco Gauff: Served a new Miu Miu outfit and 7 double faults
The French Open champion lost in the first round of Berlin to Wang. Gauff simply did not have it. She didn’t even get a set—losing 6-3, 6-3.
I don’t think this changes anything for me when it comes to Gauff’s chances of winning Wimbledon.
Grass is her worst surface, but this loss should come as no surprise.
After her French Open win, Gauff of course went on a press tour. She had only two days back at her home in Florida to recover from the French Open, and right after that, she flew out to Berlin.
The fact she got a match under her belt is a good sign.
After resting this week, she should come into Wimbledon prepared. The trick for Gauff is facing moderately difficult opponents in the first 3 rounds. She needs to be prepared by the second week. Last year, she faced 3 opponents who were not challenging at all. Then in the fourth round, faced Emma Navarro. This is basically the equivalent of training for a marathon by running 1 mile each day. And that’s what Gauff will need to win Wimbledon. It's just a matter of how the draw will unfold.
WIMBLEDON PREDICTION: EITHER FOURTH ROUND OR CHAMPION
Sabalenka: Finalist Grand Slam???
Sabalenka might have lost to Marketa Vondrousova 6-2, 6-4 in the semi-finals, but I still think she will make a deep run at Wimbledon. She was extremely clutch against Rybakina, saving 4 match points to win in the quarterfinals of Berlin.
I don’t think Sabalenka will do well with the spotlight on her at Wimbledon. After the French Open controversy—I have a bad feeling for her. I think she will do what she has already done twice this year: lose in the finals of a Grand Slam.
WIMBLEDON PREDICTION: FINALIST
Rybakina: 2022 Repeat?
Elena Rybakina is such a great player. Except she has no clutch gene. She is the opposite of clutch. That could be seen against Sabalenka in the Berlin quarterfinals, where she squandered 4 match points. It was seen last year at Wimbledon, where she had a perfect opportunity to win her second slam. It was seen last year at the Australian Open, where she had seven match points and lost to Anna Blinkova in what was the greatest tiebreak in women’s tennis history.
She did win Wimbledon in 2022. (It’s worth noting that the player she beat in the finals is the only woman on tour less clutch than her—Ons Jabeur). Regardless, she can make deep runs at slams and compete with the best of the best. I think Rybakina can make the semis again this year. Sadly, she hasn’t shown me enough lately to where I can consider her the favorite.
WIMBLEDON PREDICTION: SEMIFINALIST
Vondrousova: Another shock win?
Now, we have arrived at my winner pick. Before she played Sabalenka (and beat her), I predicted that she would win the tournament. And after winning her first title since 2023 Wimbledon this week in Berlin, I feel even more confident in my prediction. She went from #164 in the world to #73 this week. Here are some of the players she beat:
Madison Keys (World Rank #6, Australian Open Champ)
Diana Shnaider (World Rank #12)
Ons Jabeur (Two-Time Wimbledon Finalist in 2022 and 2023)
Aryna Sabalenka (World Number 1, this year’s Australian Open and French Open finalist)
It goes without saying that this is insanely impressive. And for me, Keys and Shnaider are enough to make her my winner pick. We have seen in recent years how on the women’s side, players have emerged from nowhere to win Wimbledon. It has been a toss-up every year. A player who nobody had on their radar has gone on to win the title. And this year, I think that player will be Vondrousova. (Again)
WIMBLEDON PREDICTION: WINNER
Alcaraz: 3-peat for the Spaniard?
Fresh off of winning the French Open, Alcaraz entered the Queen’s Club Championships looking to continue his winning ways.
He won because he had an easy draw. Normally, I would be disappointed if Alcaraz had even dropped a set on grass against some of the players he faced this tournament. But the guy was wiped. After the marathon final that was the French, he clearly had yet to fully recover. He dropped a couple of sets along the way to winning the title, but it was understandable due to his fatigue. Additionally, he got some more matches and ranking points under his belt.
Alcaraz is far and away the best grass court player on the planet. He should easily win this tournament, taking home his third straight trophy here, his sixth Grand Slam overall, and his second consecutive “Channel Slam.”
WIMBLEDON PREDICTION: WINNER
Sinner: Should we be concerned?
Sinner’s loss to Bublik was very similar to Gauff’s loss to Wang.
Grass is Sinner’s worst surface, and Sinner was still extremely tired from the French Open.
Grass is Bublik’s best surface.
I don’t really think this should come as a surprise. This loss is good for Sinner, as it gives him more playing time on the grass courts. I still don’t think he will win on the grass here—not with Carlos in the way. Regardless, Sinner is still the second-best grass court player. He will likely make the semifinals or the finals.
WIMBLEDON PREDICTION: SEMIFINALIST OR FINALIST
Ok, that’s it for this week.
Be on the lookout for my draw analysis, which will be much longer and in-depth, and should come out on Friday or Saturday.
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